Jan. 17: What is driving mortgage rates; California & AI legislation; Robert Rubin business leader silence; Saturday Spotlight: FlyHomes BBYS
Yeah, I know that this is a daily commentary on the world of mortgages, often about how companies are evolving, leveraging technology, and constantly changing their product in their pursuit of customers. How about the opposite business model? Unlike just about every other online business today, Craigslist is a completely honest, straightforward business. There is no hidden toll or price (your data) for “free” (the company makes revenue elsewhere) and the transaction is straightforward for buyer and seller. No upselling to a paid version. No AI. Unlike many early sites, the founders did not sell out and continued to be satisfied with the existing level of income provided rather than the temptation of a large payout up front, enjoying a first-mover advantage with a lot of good will and brand recognition. Somehow, no one came and ate their lunch. It just kept going, year after year after year. How many sites do you remember changing for the worse after being sold to a large corporation? Craigslist is a very rare example of what happens when you don't sell out. It would be fun if an AI and data mining backlash spurred a bunch of new 'old school' sites with honest, straightforward dealings. I guess one can dream...
Saturday Spotlight: Flyhomes
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Power up homebuyers—bigger budgets, winning offers, only one move.
Flyhomes is the industry leader in solving one of the biggest challenges in real estate: how to buy your next home without having to sell your current one first. As the #1 Buy Before You Sell solution provider in the U.S., we deliver innovative and customizable financial products that solve common borrower challenges, including high DTI, low down payment, asset liquidation, and sales contingencies.
We operate on a wholesale-only model, empowering loan officers and real estate agents with a variety of Buy Before You Sell products available in all 50 states. More than 5,000 buyers have already used Flyhomes to move seamlessly. With $2.2B in funded loans and a growing partner network of 160+ lenders and 30,000+ MLOs, we’re expanding quickly and are proud to offer our solutions now nationwide.
Our products give borrowers real advantages: buy with $0 down, reduce their DTI by up to 50%, and make cash-equivalent offers that close in as little as 10 days. And because we’re wholesale-only, there’s no competition with loan officers or agents. We exist to help them win more deals and build stronger client relationships.
Another key difference? Low costs. We’re proud to offer the most affordable Buy Before You Sell solutions in the market. Our programs start with a tiered flat fee, and our loan product pricing is tied to the loan amount, not the departing home’s sale price. This structure keeps costs fair and transparent, giving borrowers access to the tools they need without creating an extra financial burden. It’s a true win-win for both families and the professionals who serve them.
Join our live webinar on Jan 21. We’ll walk through how Flyhomes products empower you and your borrowers to buy their next home before selling the current one, reduce DTI and help them qualify for up to 50 percent more, and remove home sale contingencies and make stronger offers.
Don’t miss out, save your spot now or book a call to learn how this could benefit your borrowers and help you close more deals today.
(For more information on having your firm’s extracurricular activities, employee growth, and your charitable side featured, contact Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt.)
A look at what is driving, or not, mortgage rates
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Andrew Stringer, EVP of Capital Markets with PrimeLending, writes, “For being in such a tight range on the 10-year Treasury note, it has felt like being tossed back and forth in the wind. Speaking of wind, we saw some meaningful tailwinds this week, improving rates driven from what could be seen as a bit of a flight to quality (selling stocks and buying bonds). Additionally, Iran tensions have recently been impacting commodity prices, such as oil, which has triggered additional flight‑to‑quality moves.
“Of course, a day or two later, here we are again, consolidating back higher. Iranian tensions have not left the spotlight, but an immediate attack seems to be averted for now. That said, here’s my short list of topical pivot points that could create the catalyst for a breakout of our stubborn range.
“Will inflation reemerge given the backdrop of pseudo‑QE (200B MBS purchases) and wage growth expected to accelerate?
How far can oil drop, reducing inflationary pressure? Geopolitical tension + U.S. involvement.
Low jobless claims cap employment‑landscape concerns. Will this give the Fed less need to cut?
Supreme Court ruling on tariffs – result will move markets.
Agencies and conservatorship – If freed from the government, what would that mean to the market? Could the president influence MBS purchases at that point?
The Fed – Powell hearing + new Fed Chair to be announced.
“OHHHHH home… home on the range…
where the 10-yr just drifts day by day…
We hope tailwinds are kind
‘til it whips back on a dime,
Yet the breakout still won’t come our wayyyyy.”
The current presidential administration is “throwing a lot against the wall” in terms of housing and affordability. Hopefully, some of it will stick. One proposal has been to prohibit large buyers of single-family homes buying them for rentals. Economist Elliot Eisenberg believes what several others have expressed to me, and that is, “This is a bad idea. First, there are about 16 million rental homes in the US and large institutional investors own 2 percent. Second, the ban might reduce construction as a key source of demand disappears. Third, the fundamental reason housing is so costly is a lack of supply, solving that requires building more homes.”
Friday the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) released an issue brief, “Rebuilding the American Dream: Homeownership for All Americans.” The brief details how excessive government regulation, fees, and permitting delays have fueled the nation’s housing affordability crisis and outlines a supply-focused policy agenda to restore affordability for American families.
Robert E. Rubin, a senior counselor at Centerview Partners, served as U.S. Treasury secretary from 1995-99, asks, “Why Have Business Leaders Gone Silent?” in the Wall Street Journal.
“Everyone is intimidated by President Trump, but we need to find the courage to stand up against abuses. ‘If anything has surprised Mr. Rubin,’ the New York Times wrote less than a year into the Clinton administration, ‘it is the avalanche of criticism, especially from the business community.’ While I don’t recall specifics, I suspect the Times’s assessment was accurate. In 1993 I left Goldman Sachs to serve as director of the National Economic Council and later as Treasury secretary. Like nearly everyone I knew in economic policy, in Democratic and Republican administrations alike, I found that business leaders had no problem voicing their opinions. While few in the administration enjoyed having them publicly object to our decisions, we found that private-sector engagement provided helpful perspective.
“The history of such criticism makes it all the more noteworthy, and concerning, that the business community is now largely silent. Over the past year, President Trump has taken unprecedented actions to assert federal control over our economy and undermine the constitutional system on which that economy depends. In response, many leaders in the private sector, as well as in philanthropy, media, law and academia, have responded not with criticism, but with acquiescence and accommodation.
“This is a serious loss for our economy and society.
“I recognize that some in the business community believe Mr. Trump’s actions, on balance, promote free-market conservatism. To them, I pose this question. Imagine if, a decade ago, I told you a future president would do the following within the span of a year: create domestic instability with campaigns of political retribution; issue sweeping pardons for allies who break the law; adopt a foreign-policy doctrine favoring military action for the explicit purpose of seizing other nations’ resources, threatening not only adversaries but North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies; attack the legal immigration system and universities; and undermine the rule of law on which our rights and property depend.
“Further, he would demand government ownership stakes in large American companies; take a share of export proceeds in exchange for lifting export controls; cancel public investment already approved by Congress; unilaterally raise tariffs, often for reasons that have nothing to do with the economy; demand private companies hire or fire executives for political reasons; sow distrust in government economic data; attempt to fire a member of the Federal Reserve Board without due process; and threaten his critics, including business leaders, with retribution, including financial penalties and criminal prosecution.
“A large majority of business leaders, not long ago, would have agreed that this hypothetical future president would pose a grave threat to our country’s prosperity and our way of life.
“Such a president is no longer hypothetical. In my experience, many leaders harbor deep concerns about Mr. Trump’s lawlessness, weaponization of the government, and interference in markets. They refrain from public criticism not because they find nothing to criticize but because they’re intimidated.
“Such fear is understandable. Even so, when the business community and our leaders cease to speak out on matters of public concern, they turn their backs on the foundations of our country’s success.
“Free markets can’t be separated from other freedoms Americans have cherished and sometimes taken for granted. Due process, the rule of law, free speech, a free press, and honest elections have been among our most powerful advantages in the global economy. Countries where the rule of law is tenuous are viewed, rightly, as riskier places to do business. Most American leaders have an additional reason, beyond protecting our long-term prosperity and constitutional principles, to support sound policy and the rule of law: They live here.
“I don’t know how each leader should weigh and balance competing considerations in the face of this severe threat. But all should acknowledge the threat and consider how they might respond. Doing so can be as simple as keeping truth, and sound economic policy, alive in private conversation within the business community. It might involve advocating behind the scenes with elected officials in Congress and statehouses, or with opinion leaders in the media. It could mean considering how their organizations can mitigate the risks of coercion, even if those risks can’t be completely eliminated. In some cases, it might even involve being the rare voice willing to stand up to the government.
“Perhaps most important, all business leaders, and leaders in all sectors, should ask themselves three questions. First, do Mr. Trump’s actions regarding the economy, the law, and use of the federal government cross a red line? Second, if not, what would? Third, what will I do differently if and when such a line is crossed?
“The challenges of opposing authoritarianism can be great. But the ever-greater consequences, if authoritarianism is left to continue, can be many times more severe.”
California grapples with AI and underwriting
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With so much lending activity in California, it is good to know what the California MBA has its eyes on, legislatively, since other states pay attention. I asked California MBA CEO Paul Gigliotti, “What’s up in terms of AI, a popular topic at conferences and on webinars?”
“One of the most prominent themes expected to resurface in 2026 is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and automated decision systems (ADS). For mortgage banking, the objective is straightforward: policymakers should adopt rules that allow lenders to continue using AI and automated tools responsibly, while ensuring consumers are protected and treated fairly. Striking that balance will be critical this year, and California MBA plans to be deeply engaged in that conversation.
“In 2025, the primary legislative vehicle addressing these issues was AB 1018, introduced by Rebecca Bauer-Kahan. The bill sought to regulate automated decision systems broadly but raised significant concerns for financial services, including the potential for duplicative and conflicting regulatory requirements. California MBA worked closely with lawmakers and stakeholders to secure important amendments that narrowed the bill’s scope and clarified that financial service developers already subject to federal privacy and data-protection laws should not be subject to overlapping mandates. Ultimately, the author elected to hold the bill in the fall, acknowledging that additional work is needed to better understand how these tools operate in highly regulated industries such as mortgage lending.
“A key point often missed in policy discussions is that AI and automated decision tools are not new to mortgage banking. Lenders have long relied on automated underwriting systems, credit models, and fraud-prevention tools. In many cases, these systems are required by federal housing programs and the government-sponsored enterprises, including FHA, VA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac.
“These tools already operate under extensive federal and state oversight. Introducing new, uncoordinated requirements at the state level risks creating conflicts that could slow lending, increase costs, and ultimately reduce access to credit. During the 2025 legislative process, California MBA worked alongside a coalition of financial services organizations, including the California Bankers Association and the California Credit Union League, to raise concerns about disclosure, appeal, and documentation provisions in AB 1018.
“One major concern was that overly burdensome requirements could push lenders back toward manual underwriting processes. That shift would not only increase processing times and operational costs but could also reintroduce human bias into lending decisions, an outcome that runs counter to many consumer-protection goals.
“There are also real operational challenges when lenders rely on third-party or government-developed systems for loan guarantees or securitization. Requiring individual lenders to explain or assess automated systems they do not own or control presents both legal and practical difficulties.
“Finally, policymakers should consider the downstream effects on consumers. Overly prescriptive rules could slow approvals and restrict credit availability, particularly for first-time homebuyers and underserved borrowers… the very groups many of these proposals aim to protect.
“As the 2026 legislative cycle unfolds, California MBA’s focus will be on helping shape a thoughtful, informed approach to AI policy. That means continuing to educate lawmakers on how AI is actually used in mortgage lending, identifying proposals that carry unintended consequences, and advocating for solutions that protect consumers without disrupting access to credit or responsible innovation. AI can be a powerful tool in mortgage lending when it is used responsibly and regulated intelligently. California MBA will continue working to ensure California’s policy framework strikes the right balance between innovation, consumer protection, and a healthy housing finance system.” Thank you, Paul!
Every time I put out a bird cam shot instead of a joke, it receives solid reviews. Here are the bird cam highlights for 2025, definitely worth a gander. (Pun intended.)
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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)