MBS spreads widened modestly this week and volatility climbed to a one-month high, though still near multi-year lows. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities remained range-bound despite global risk-off sentiment driven by concerns around AI investment, valuations, and slowing growth. With the Fed signaling that future balance-sheet expansion (to combat reserves nearing scarcity) would be aimed at market functioning rather than stimulus, much hinges on next month's FOMC meeti

Our first official post-shutdown jobs number was delivered, and the market has spoken. The headline was 119k new jobs added in September, basically double what the market expected. However, not so fast. August was revised down to 6k, and the unemployment rate ticked still higher to 4.44%, the highest since October 2021.   The first place we look is from the Fed vantage point. A stronger jobs headline does give them breathing room (even if unemployment ticked higher). The futu

To paraphrase one of my favorite movie quotes (from Tommy Boy): There are less orthodox ways to get a good look at a T-bone, but I’d rather take a butcher’s word for it…   Over the past month, we’ve been given the daunting task of deciphering employment and inflationary data points through less conventional sources. Now that the government has reopened, we’ll soon get the opportunity to hear about the T-bone straight from the butcher’s mouth.   This Thursday, we’ll finally re

When I stepped into the role of MISMO President just ahead of the 2025 MBA Annual Convention, I already understood MISMO’s reputation. But it wasn’t until I got behind the curtain that I truly appreciated the depth of collaboration, volunteer leadership, and shared purpose that has kept this organization going strong for more than 25 years. And if there’s a single theme that stands out from my early weeks in the role, it’s this: MISMO’s impact is everywhere, especially in the

One word for you: "uncertainty," across both policy and markets, as the shutdown-delayed flow of economic data left lenders, investors, and regulators operating in a fog. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it cannot commit to further rate cuts until it can review labor-market and inflation data that have been missing for weeks. That wait-and-see stance kept Treasury yields confined to a familiar, narrow range despite mixed auction results: the 10-year note stopped through ex

A recent topic with the agencies was on using cryptocurrency as a viable, qualifiable asset for mortgages. Another proposal on 50-year mortgages. If the narrative isn’t already loud enough, here’s the plain question: How do we get more Americans (especially younger ones) into homes?   It’s a worthwhile venture (the sentiment, not the 50-year mortgage), especially when the average mortgage 30-year rate remains stubbornly above 6.5%. Ongoing pressures from the recent government

For our Clients, Colleagues, and Friends, All of you know a lot about mortgages, but not too many of you know much about mortgage REITs. These are publicly traded companies that own pools of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities. Throw in some leverage and you get eye-popping dividend yields. But there are reasons to be cautious about this, so give us a call if you want to discuss. Last week I mentioned some of my assistants. One of the most interesting assistants was Chloe

Zillow appearing inside ChatGPT changes where discovery begins. It does not mean agents and lenders should lean on Zillow. It means more buyers will describe what they want in a general assistant first, then see results that may flow through a portal. Your advantage comes from meeting consumers before that first portal touch and making your expertise the easiest next step. What Shifts and What to Do About It 1) Conversation Is the New Search Box Publish short, plain-English a

Imagine being handed a backpack, a pair of hiking boots, and a couple freeze dried food pouches, then told you’ve just joined an expedition to climb Mount Everest… Except, there’s no compass, no tent, and no bear spray…. That’s us right now.   We’re bushwacking our way through an unsolicited economic experiment, with no clear sight of base camp. And the longer this shutdown drags on, the lower our visibility becomes. The only thing keeping us from traversing off the side of t

While we had a relatively quiet week this week, largely due to the U.S. government government shutdown, I'm getting the sense from my conversations with people in the industry around the nation a sense of cautious optimism mixed with growing uncertainty. Why? Well, markets are grappling with weaker labor data, a prolonged government shutdown, and signs of cooling in the broader economy. Despite lackluster official data, delayed by the now 38-day shutdown, private reports such

It hit me this morning… The current interest rate market is essentially EVERY season of the Dallas Cowboys. Think about it. Each year, we beaten down Cowboys fans get all excited about what the season might bring. Trades go off, positive signals emerge, and hope is offered that this will be the year everything turns around! And then, right when the season is on the line… we faceplant.   If you happened to catch last night’s Cowboys game, then you know exactly what I (we) am f

Building regulatory readiness isn’t something you simply hope for, it’s something you shape . That’s exactly what’s happening with the Mortgage Compliance Dataset (MCD) Tech Sprint , a joint initiative from the Conference of State Bank Supervisors ( CSBS ) and MISMO  that kicks off December 3rd. This is not just a demo or proof of concept. It’s a real-time collaboration between regulators, lenders, and technology providers to define what compliance efficiency should look like

First and foremost, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25-basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00 percent, while also announcing the end of balance sheet runoff (“Quantitative Tightening”) as of December 1. However, despite the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates did not fully follow suit, as the Freddie Mac 30-year and 15-year averages fell only slightly to 6.17 percent and 5.41 percent, respectively. Many borrowers expressed frustration, expecting lower mortgage ra

Spring gets most of the headlines in real estate, but fall often tells a different story. As the market cools, competition eases, listings sit a bit longer, and many sellers become more open to negotiation before year-end. For buyers who have been waiting for the right moment, this season quietly offers one of the best windows to act. This time of year gives buyers space to evaluate options rather than rush to outbid. That change of pace rewards preparation. It lets buyers co

As much of the industry was in Las Vegas for MBA Annual this week, chatter (outside of AI) revolved cautious optimism amid continued affordability challenges. Rising insurance premiums, HOA fees, and property taxes, along with mortgage rates that continue to hover in the low-6 percent range, are keeping housing affordability strained. However, FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced a review of loan-level price adjustments, which could reduce fees for borrowers and potentially mak

In my last piece, I wrote about Sora 2 and its potential to transform video creation for mortgage professionals. What led me there wasn't curiosity about video. It started a few months earlier when I began building a series of custom GPTs for FinLocker. Those projects became my testing ground for understanding how emerging technology can actually make a difference in how loan officers show up for their clients and partners. I built the FinLocker GPT Toolkit to solve a simple

What's old is new: Economic uncertainty, shifting interest rate dynamics, and continued fallout from the government shutdown. Volatility returned to markets following renewed tariff threats from President Trump, which helped push bond yields lower. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly flirted with the psychologically significant 4 percent level before retreating, signaling persistent investor caution, and then finally broke through that barrier yesterday to drop into the 3s. Mo

While the government shutdown continues to simmer in stall-out mode, the US-China 100% tariff announcement, set to go live on November 1, is sure to spice things up. As the proverbial pot-lid begins to rattle, markets are watching closely to see what bubbles up next. So far, the flight-to-quality trade has worked in our favor, with the 10-year Treasury yield retreating to the 4.0% level. But the question remains: what catalyst could push us into a full boil—or breach that 4.0

As I wrap up my time with FinLocker and step into my role as President of MISMO, I’m happy to share that the MLO VieauxPoint  weekly segment will continue with Chrisman Commentary. You’ll just have a new, and improved, Vieaux. Ethan Vieaux, Vice President of Customer Success at FinLocker, will be taking the pen from here. Ethan has spent years in the trenches with loan officers, helping them integrate technology that genuinely serves both their business and their borrowers. H

It used to be that schools began after Labor Day and got a week off for spring break. Well, now they're "woke," and get a week off in the fall, much like the mortgage industry seemingly did this week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, currently in its tenth day. While the data void left market participants with little hard news to digest, attention turned to Fed comments on monetary policy and inflation expectations, highlighted by Governor Barr’s cautious stance