After coming off a holiday weekend and entering a lower liquidity environment today, the market is primed for more volatility, setting up for when Trump takes the podium at noon central time today to discuss the current Iran war. Off the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs number on Friday (which had lower conviction given it was pre-Iran war), we are left with more of a longer digestion period with traders reentering the office today. That said, traders are mostly cognizant that it’s baby...

Communicating price directionality has been distilled down to an almost binary composition: oil goes up, rates go up. Oil goes down, rates go down. Thankfully, the volatility of what was initially an unforeseen inflationary variable has begun to subside. That’s not to say oil has moved lower, rather the erratic knee jerk price action has faded. What this suggests is that the market is starting to capitulate to the notion that the war in Iran likely won’t be short lived. And with the Fed...

In this current environment, price targets age about as well as leftover milk. If there were a chart metric for panic locking, the benchmark would be the BPM of LO’s and real estate agents watching rates forge higher. Meanwhile, the 10yr might as well be correlated to a herd of cats with a garden hose. Forget fundamentals, the only thing the market cares about right now is the belief or disbelief in the word “transitory.” The timing of all this is all but impeccable (cue sarcastic...