It is easy to look at the steady drumbeat of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires and ask whether something fundamentally different is happening or whether we are simply more aware of risks that have always existed. When people talk about once-in-a-century floods arriving every few years, the question is not really theological or political. It is about whether the data supports what our instincts are telling us. And in at least one important way, it does. If you step back from...

Politics, policy, and a market trying to recalibrate after a burst of volatility were the names of the game this week. President Trump’s announcement that he intends to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair was the largest headline. While Warsh is a known quantity with prior Fed experience and deep ties to Wall Street, the nomination introduced renewed debate about Fed independence, especially as the Supreme Court considers a case that...

The narrative this week was dominated by policy uncertainty rather than concrete action, beginning with President Trump’s long-teased $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase plan, which arrived at Davos with few details and little immediate market impact. Mortgage rates ended up less than 10-basis points from below pre-announcement levels, underscoring the growing consensus among economists and Fed officials that housing affordability is constrained by supply, not financing. The...