July 26: Why inventory has increased; STRATMOR, rankings, & customer service; What is moving rates; Saturday Spotlight: Moder
Summer in the Northern Hemisphere is zipping by, my son Robbie is roaming around the Badlands in South Dakota on the way to North Dakota, and in a week I head to Michigan for the MMLA conference. Things are steady, albeit it warm, in the heartland of the U.S. But 8,000 miles away there are the makings of a comedy movie. Police in India have arrested a man accused of operating a fake embassy for years in a rental outside New Delhi, as well as adding fake diplomatic plates on four since-recovered cars that he adorned with flags from several nations. They also recovered 4.5 million Indian rupees (US$52,095) and other foreign currency. The 47-year-old man reportedly claimed he was operating as an advisor or ambassador to (this is where the crime goes from “basic fraud” to “possibly the funniest thing you can do to try to get diplomatic plates”) countries called “Seborga” or “Westarctica,” a truly incredible bit. Those names are Latveria and Wakanda-tier names for fake countries. Life outside of mortgage!
Saturday Spotlight: Moder
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Powering Mortgage Growth Through Smart Operations and Scalable Tech
At Moder, we believe the mortgage industry doesn’t need more complexity, it needs sharper execution and smarter tools. That’s why we’ve built a model where operations and technology work hand-in-hand to help lenders and servicers grow, adapt, and deliver exceptional customer experiences.
Our operations teams across India and Philippines are the execution engine behind some of the most trusted names in U.S. residential mortgage. From origination to servicing to title and Post Closing we bring speed, accuracy, and discipline to every step of the process. With deep industry expertise, global scalability, and a culture built on ownership and delivery obsession, we help clients stay ahead in a dynamic market.
On the technology front, we don’t over-engineer, we solve. Moder builds practical, impactful tech designed around client needs and market realities. Whether it’s automating routine processes through RPA or accelerating workflows with Gen AI, our solutions are modular, cost-efficient, and quick to deploy.
We pioneered the concept of tech blueprints foundational, scalable frameworks that can be tailored for each client. This makes innovation accessible even to mid-sized mortgage players removing the usual cost and complexity barriers.
Everything we build and operate is anchored in three engineering principles. First, Delivery Obsession – We’re outcome-focused, always. Second, Pride of Ownership – Our teams take full accountability, end to end. Third, Intentional Listening – We build what clients truly need not what’s trendy.
Results That Matter! By combining deep mortgage expertise with engineered simplicity, we help clients improve customer experience across borrower touchpoints, lower cost per loan with automation and optimized workflows, move faster in a dynamic market with tech that scales, and embrace innovation without breaking the bank.
At Moder, we’re not just delivering services or solutions we’re engineering value. We’re here to make transformation achievable, not aspirational. To help mortgage players of all sizes compete, scale, and lead.
That’s the Moder advantage: seamless operations, smart technology, and a commitment to building what moves the industry forward.
(For more information on having your firm’s extracurricular activities, employee growth, and your charitable side featured, contact Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt.)
STRATMOR on rankings, lists, and customer service
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“Your call is very important to us. Please enjoy this 40-minute flute solo." Customer service is good, right? It seems like we “can’t swing a dead cat around” without being asked to rate the quality of a hotel or restaurant or doctor, reading the consequences of some survey, or having some company throw “pay to play” results at us. What is the real story out there for servicers and lenders?
Mike Seminari, Director of Customer Experience with the STRATMOR Group, writes, “Every year, usually sometime in the autumn, we see the National Benchmark results come out for Mortgage Origination and Servicing. The big names are always there, usually about twenty or so, with a few lesser-known entities sprinkled in. Maybe they paid to boost their sample size or maybe the surveyor boosted their survey counts out of the goodness of their hearts! – who knows?
“The top scorers are always the large credit unions like USAA and Navy Fed, thought they fly under the radar because they’re somehow in a different category, even though they’re doing the same mortgage loans as everyone else. The difference between the top score and the middle scorer is typically nominal, though the separation is made to feel more significant by using a 1000-point scale. Insights and guidance are typically broad brushstrokes and focus on communication and doc collection. So, what are we to make of these National Benchmarks? Are they accurate? Are they useful?
“Yes, they are accurate. Any true blind panel benchmark draws respondents from a pool of willing survey-takers, who are first vetted to make sure they obtained a mortgage in the past 12 months, then asked to identify their lender, then asked a bunch of questions about their experience). With a sample size of 100+ per lender, confidence is going to be 95 percent+.
“They are useful if you’re a big name and want to see how you stack-rank against other big-name peers. That said, the difference between top performers and average performers is typically only a couple percentage points. They are also useful if you win, though it may cost you upwards of a quarter-million dollars for the rights to advertise it for the coming year.
“The value in the data is about more than an ego stroke. These numbers are useful for setting goals and prioritizing areas of improvement. Broad as the brushstrokes may be, they’re still valid insights.
“STRATMOR sees the information in National Benchmark data as something that can be heavily focused on ratings instead of how advocacy and loyalty are driven by specific people, who in turn are responsible for specific touchpoints and miscues during the origination process.
“Some better-known surveys focus primarily on the larger lenders and servicers and tend to overlook mid-size and smaller companies due to sample size cutoffs. For example, in 2024, only 10 lenders made the “above average” cutoff. The difference between top performers and average performers is typically only a few percent (2024 winner scored 772 vs. study average of 727, so only a 4.5 percent difference). It’s heavily focused on ratings instead of how advocacy and loyalty are driven by specific touchpoints and miscues during the origination process.
“STRATMOR has observed from its MortageCX program that certain event-based drivers, namely the 7 Commandments of Optimizing the Customer Experience, are key to creating behavioral and cultural change. Short of that level of detail, it’s easy to diagnose broad issues, but difficult to pinpoint people and process changes needed to move the needle on CSAT and NPS. Ideally, a benchmark program (STRATMOR offers one) would be paired with in-depth analysis of contributions by each LO, processor, and underwriter to the customer experience. The lynchpin is in providing personalized scorecards that offer a clear path to improvement through coaching tips and full transparency.” (Thank you, Mike! For more on STRATMOR’s MortgageCX program, reach out to CX Director Mike Seminari.)
Thoughts on recent bond market activity & rates
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Despite the usual constant news flow, rates really haven’t done much. Veteran mortgage rate watchers know that often 30-year rates may not follow what the Fed does, and in fact may move in the opposite direction. Andrew Stringer, EVP of Capital Markets with PrimeLending, has some entertaining thoughts on what’s going on and an analogy.
“Have you watched a child in an elevator? You can see it on their face (is it just my kids?). How many buttons can I get away with before getting restrained. Coiled up energy… A chemical release of endorphins… and the reality is once those buttons get mashed, you’re hitting every…single…floor on the way up or down…
“As we have all felt stuck on this elevator WAY longer than any of us had hoped, there is a notion that if only we could just take a one-way elevator back to the market bottom, we could all get off this ride for good. The problem: a mischievous child (apply whatever analogy you want to that one) has run onto the elevator and begun pushing all the buttons. Here are some of the floors we’ve recently arrived at:
“Floor 32: Tariffs. No surprise we’ve been jammed up here. Recent developments have headlined agreements being made with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. While these agreements have been aimed at rebalancing trade, there is still concern and uncertainty about how they will impact industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, and tech. Markets are mixed in reception. August 1st deadline is quickly approaching… A big one to look out for is a deal with Europe.
“Floor 31…30…31...30...29…: The Fed. As quickly as we feel Trump may introduce a black swan-like event as big as ousting the Fed Chairman himself, Bessant can enter stage left and calm the markets. If you want a fun ticker to follow, Polymarket offers a “Chance Powell is out as Fed Chair in 2025” futures poll… It reached 30 percent this week! It’s now back to 18 percent but let’s not ignore the fact that the market is legitimately pricing into our market today the likelihood that this could happen. Talk about volatility.
“Floor 25: Sell American (or not sell): If you may have noticed, right when the trade war kicked off, this was a BIG unknown for investors. Will the US lose footing as the global “gold standard” for stocks, bonds, debt purchasing, etc. As of today, the S&P hit yet another all-time high (currently at 6,344), meanwhile the 20yr Bond Auction just went off and showed the strongest demand it’s seen in more than a year. If there was any question on how the “Sell America” trade was going, I think we can put this one to pasture… As long as no one cares about the price of milk exports.
“Floor 22: The 10-Year: When comparing the market to an elevator ride, nothing feels more appropriate of a comparison then when looking at the 10yr chart. Elevator goes down, elevator goes up… down. Up…down. Down… up. The 4.5 percent ‘backstop’ has held, and then the subsequent follow through down to the 200-day moving average at 4.36. From there, after briefly breaking below, the 200-day seems to have become a pivot point that we’ve bounced from. With not much data other than news headlines, we’ll likely continue tracking in this range-bound territory for foreseeable future, mortgage rates included.
“I’m sure there is a shared sentiment that we’re about ready to hit the fire-escape and ditch this glass-case of emotions! Sure, we can’t control the buttons that have been mashed, but at least we’ve been provided with some really good company and catchy music to help us along the way… Save this email because the day will come when the bellman finally announces, “You’ve arrived at your destination!” Thank you, Andrew!
Stop saying there’s no inventory. There is.
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There is no question that the inventory of housing for sale is increasing. Why? Wells Fargo’s economic team observes that between 2022 and 2023, average resale inventory amounted to just over one million units, well below the level registered over the past several cycles. So far in 2025, however, existing home supply is normalizing. The number of existing homes available has climbed to 1.5 million units, marking the highest level since 2020.
“Most Measures of Housing Supply Point to Normalization. Months’ supply, or how many months it would take to sell all available inventory at the current sales pace, increased to 4.4 months in May. By this measure, resale supply is roughly in line with the "normal" readings which predominated in the years before the pandemic and housing bubble/Great Recession.
“Days on Market Increasing. Homes are taking longer to sell, a change from highly competitive market conditions right after the pandemic. The average single-family home now sells in about 55 days, up from a low of 40 days in 2021 and trending closer to the 63-day averaged in 2019.
“New Listings Up but Not Accelerating. New listings are running ahead of the 2023 and 2024 levels. That said, new listings are still below 2022's pace and have not accelerated. The reduced velocity in homes hitting the market over the past few weeks suggests a significant break-out in resale supply is not forthcoming.
“Where is Supply Rising? Resale supply is now above pre-pandemic levels in several states, most notably the District of Columbia, Idaho, Nebraska. Texas and Florida, which count as two of the most populated states in the nation, also stand out as having high inventory levels.
“Where, Specifically, is Supply Rising? Inventory levels are still below the 2019 average in most major markets, though several markets such as Los Angeles and Washington DC have seen notable yearly gains. Meanwhile, total listings have risen relatively more rapidly in Tampa and Charlotte, and are now above their pre-pandemic level. On other hand, resale supply remains low in Chicago and New York.
“Why is Supply Rising? The labor market has lost luster. Similar to resale inventory, the unemployment rate is up from the low experienced during the pandemic. Reduced demand for labor has made finding a new job more challenging, which could be leading to both weaker buyer demand and increased forced sales. Stress is gradually mounting for some segments: Delinquency rates for homeowners with conventional mortgages remain low but have gradually risen recently for FHA borrowers. The higher share of FHA loans, which offer less stringent credit, income, and down-payment requirements, reflects mounting financial stress among lower income households.
“The ‘Lock-in Effect’ is easing: Mortgage rates have now been over 6 percent since 2022 due to tighter monetary policy. As a result, the share of mortgage debt outstanding with a rate over 6 percent has risen to nearly 20 percent from 7 percent in 2022.
"’Hidden’ homeownership costs are climbing. In particular, an upturn in insurance premiums may be pushing owners who are already at the margins of affordability to sell. Insurance rates have risen sharply in Florida and Texas, consistent with a jump in inventory in those states. Insurance costs are up essentially everywhere, however. The increase in insurance rates reflects higher replacement costs for damaged buildings on account of the surge in labor and building material prices. Similarly, repair and maintenance costs for homeowners, which are running about 35 percent above pre-pandemic levels, are creating affordability pressures for owners faced with unexpected repair projects: repair sticker shock.
“The population growth is normalizing: Several states, most notably in the Sunbelt Region, experienced an influx of new residents after the pandemic. In 2024, the number of movers from elsewhere downshifted in states such as Texas, the Carolinas, and Florida. Reduced domestic migration and fewer new home buyers are likely adding to local supply pressures.
“There are other factors as well. The ‘Return to Office’ (RTO) is increasing as hybrid work policies are tilting back towards more in-person attendance. Stricter RTO policies have resulted in strong office visitation growth this year in markets such as San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, and New York. RTO may be leading remote employees to sell their homes in order to be closer to the office. There are muted gains in ‘Zoom Town’ home supply. Inventory is gradually mounting in ‘Zoom Towns’ and vacation hot spots where demand surged after COVID and the demand for vacation homes is tepid.
“Investors sales are increasing. The unit count of investor sales has come up slightly over the past few years: The inventory share of homes sold by investors has risen, reaching almost 10 percent at the end of 2024.
“Home prices in some markets and price points are softening with the rising supply: After a strong run over the past several years, home price appreciation is now softening, which could be spurring prospective sellers to list their homes at the perceived top of the market.” Thank you, Wells Fargo’s economics team!
Don’t ever bet when a magician is involved, as shown by this short video.
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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)