Home lending is one of the few industries where the customer can lock in a future rate and price. Put another way, if you went to the local gas station, or grocery store, and told them you wanted to pay now for a gallon of petrol or milk two months from now, you’d be stared at in disbelief. But the futures market is alive and well with companies and individuals locking in prices now for things like bacon, orange juice, wheat, gold, and corn in the future, hedging any impact of prices on their profits. There is a cost, usually the bid/ask price spread, the drop in price from one month to the next, and commissions paid in actually trading the contracts.
I periodically receive questions about the “cost to hedge” for mortgage bankers with locked pipelines. It is not an easy question to answer, like the cost of unleaded gas down at the corner. Hedging is a loan level activity where each loan’s program, interest rate, lock period, etc., is analyzed. It is tricky because company policies like extensions and renegotiations enter into it. Specifically, extensions and renegotiations increase it, and while the production team is helped, the capital markets department usually incurs the expense. And the price drop in the securities market often changes during the lock period. And then there’s always the “what is the cost of a loan that falls out?”
Manufacturing loans faster, and bringing loans to market quicker, reduces a lender’s interest rate exposure to some degree. Thus, the reason bond loans can be an issue for some lenders. Unfortunately, I think many hedge vendors look at the problem 2-dimensionally, when it’s a 3-D issue. The problem isn’t necessarily all “speed-to-originate,” but rather “hedge model efficiency.” What assumptions are being made about the duration/beta of the hedge instrument, and pull through, broken down by product groups and cross referencing at what stage in the loan life cycle loans have fallen out in the past. Volatility in the To Be Announced (TBA) markets will kill a lender’s gain on sale. Lenders can be profitable in a rising rate environment, and profitable in a falling rate environment, but sudden swings in the bond market, and therefore interest rates, will kill you every time and all models break down.
The cost to hedge is constantly changing. Viewed in a vacuum, I can say right now our hedge cost is around $X per loan, while the market is behaving rationally and my pull through acts as it has historically. This is also assuming I’m sending loans to market at the right time, I’m using broker-dealers that aren’t trying to pick off an additional +, and all the while having a stable ‘best efforts to mandatory’ spread. Ask me in six months how much my hedge is running and I’ll no doubt have a different answer. I believe that the real value of originating the loan quicker is a reduction in your finance fees from your warehouse bank, and not necessarily on your hedge side.