1.21.26 Global Sell Off; Polunsky Beitel Green's Marty Green on Political Posturing; Davos Remarks
While “Sell America” goes on, or at least the perception of it, outside our borders, leading to bond prices going down and rates going up, in this country we are learning the difference between a pardon, a commutation, and clemency. I continue to hear how fraud, especially occupancy fraud, in residential lending is on the upswing. President Donald Trump commuted the five-year prison sentence (freed, but conviction stands) of a New York real estate manager convicted of fraudulently obtaining nearly $50 million in loans by overstating the value of apartment buildings in Hartford. (This is the second time he has been set free.) Jacob Deutsch and a co-defendant, Aron Deutsch of Monsey, admitted to participating in a scheme that relied on false rent rolls, leases, and financial records to secure nearly $50 million in loans tied to multifamily properties in Hartford. Trust, but verify? On today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss… verifications. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green's Marty Green on how political posturing has affected bond yields and prevailing market sentiment.)
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You are invited to learn how Fairway Independent Mortgage is supporting loan officers and branch managers to succeed on their mortgage journey. Thursday, January 22nd, at 3PM ET, there will be an anonymous virtual meeting that will bring you “behind the curtain” with the executive team and others for this successful independent mortgage bank: January Fairway Day Registration Zoom.
Start your next chapter with a team that values your voice and gives you the tools to thrive in your career, for life. If you’re a loan originator looking for a career move that offers real growth, Motto® Mortgage is ready for you. Joining a Motto office means gaining immediate access to strong compliance support, ongoing educational opportunities, and marketing tools designed to keep your pipeline moving, all while being part of a nationwide network of independently owned offices serving local communities. Motto Mortgage brokerages are hiring talented loan originators all across the country. For more information or to take the next step, start here.
Headline: Stop Paying the "Inefficiency Tax." Every time you lose a loan because rates were slightly off, or your comp gets squeezed to cover corporate overhead, you are paying a tax on your lender’s inefficiency. Canopy Mortgage has eliminated the "bloat tax." With a flat, transparent structure and proprietary tech that automates the busy work, we put the control back in the hands of the producer. High-performing LOs and Branch Managers are moving to Canopy to keep more of what they earn in 2026. Ready to see a P&L that works for you? Click Here to See the Future of Lending - or call 385-273-0404 to discuss your future.
New year, fresh perspective! National MI is pleased to welcome Kyle Sachs as Account Manager for NJ and PA territories. He brings experience from several arenas of the mortgage industry to serve National MI’s customers with empathy and expertise. “Kyle has an incredible aptitude for adapting industry insights to people-focused solutions,” said Cheri McCarthy, East Region Managing Director at National MI. “Many of us at National MI who’ve worked with Kyle in the past know his character and energy. We are excited to now have him on our team.” National MI customers work hard every day delivering homeownership dreams. Count on Kyle Sachs as a dedicated partner with a fresh perspective to support loan production for the East Coast base. Reach out to Kyle directly at 973-903-3177 or via email.
Class Valuation has appointed Tanya Wright as EVP of TPO and Distributed Retail, bringing a lender-side operational leader into an executive role focused squarely on broker and distributed retail channels. Tanya joins the company’s Operations Leadership Team and will oversee strategy, operations and client success across those channels.
The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.
Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders
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DSCR is now available for wholesale brokers with Figure! Unlock more deals with your DSCR loans, designed for real estate investors who want to qualify based on property cash flow, not personal income. Don’t let traditional underwriting slow you down: sign up today and start delivering a smarter financing option to your investor clients. DSCR is no longer a niche product. It’s your competitive edge, and Figure’s DSCR refi solution delivers exactly that. Determine eligibility in minutes, close in as few as 5 days, and fund up to $1M with a fully digital process. No underwriters, no appraisals under $400K, and no title insurance. Just lightning-fast enablement and efficiency. Join the modern lending experience that streamlines DSCR and elevates your brand. Interested in offering the fastest-growing product in real estate lending? Our partnerships team is ready to connect with you on how you can lead this market transformation. Start the conversation here.
Don’t miss your opportunity to connect with industry leaders and peers at ICE Experience 2026, taking place March 16–18 at Wynn Las Vegas. This year’s event features a robust agenda packed with can’t-miss sessions and renowned speakers. Make the most of your time on-site with networking events designed to spark collaboration and fresh ideas. Please note that special pricing has ended, but group rates are still available, and the discounted room block expires on February 7. Secure your spot and accommodations now to be part of the conversations shaping our industry’s future. Check out the full agenda and get ready to elevate your business at ICE Experience 2026.
The best loan officers understand that choosing the right home equity product could save borrowers thousands, which is critical to fully understand and explain key HELOC features. With Symmetry, principal payback is allowed within about 10 days of funding, potentially saving borrowers thousands in interest, whereas other HELOC providers restrict how soon principal can be repaid. This could result in months of interest charges. The draw period is a two-way feature that allows borrowers to access their equity while allowing aggressive paybacks, knowing they can re-draw funds if needed. Symmetry offers draw periods of five or ten years. Prepayment penalties are a major differentiator. Symmetry has none, while other HELOC providers may charge borrowers significant fees if they close or pay off their line early. Finally, Symmetry does not impose commission claw backs for early payoffs, allowing loan officers to keep their income. Contact Symmetry today to discuss scenarios!
Verus Mortgage Capital enters 2026 with momentum. Last year marked the strongest performance in its history, and December was the best month ever recorded. That growth reflects a broader shift underway across the industry. Non-QM lending continues to expand, not because credit standards are loosening, but because borrower demand is changing. Today’s market is driven by self-employed professionals, real estate investors, and high-net-worth borrowers who need flexible solutions that still prioritize strong credit fundamentals. Verus is proud to help lenders meet this demand with disciplined underwriting, deep capital markets expertise, and programs built for today’s borrowers. To explore how non-QM can drive your growth in 2026, contact Jeff Schaefer, EVP – National Sales, at jschaefer@verusmc.com or 202-534-1821.
Many lenders still navigate an MBS pool bidding process filled with disconnected, manual steps that slow execution and increase the likelihood of mistakes. Agile's latest blog, Advancing MBS Pool Bidding with Intelligent Workflow Design, explores how modern automation and real-time intelligence can replace fragmented, manual bidding processes. While the focus is on improving pool bidding today, this framework also highlights the broader opportunity to modernize MBS execution through integrated, end-to-end electronic workflows. Read the blog to learn more about eliminating fragmentation in the MBS pool bidding process, streamlining execution, strengthening dealer engagement, and reducing operational risk. If you’d like to schedule a consultation to discuss your MBS pool bidding process, contact Agile today.
Your AI is only as powerful as the intelligence behind it. That's why the Total Expert AI Sales Assistant is fueled by Customer Intelligence, turning real-time borrower signals into timely, automated conversations that drive revenue. Customer Intelligence continuously monitors your database for moments that matter: rate drops, credit inquiries, equity gains, and more. When opportunity strikes, AI Sales Assistant takes action instantly, engaging borrowers, qualifying intent, and seamlessly handing off warm conversations to your loan officers. The result? Faster response times, more consistent follow-up, and significantly more opportunities captured from your existing portfolio. This isn’t generic AI. It’s purpose-built for mortgage, trained on real borrower scenarios, and powered by the most comprehensive customer intelligence platform in the industry. Stop missing opportunities hiding in your database. Put Customer Intelligence to work with AI that actually drives production. Learn more.
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Strategic partnerships continue
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Embrace Home Loans announced a strategic partnership with OceanFirst Bank N.A. to ensure continued access to residential mortgage financing for qualified customers in OceanFirst Bank’s markets, as banks increasingly look to specialized partners to support home lending needs. Strategic Vantage reports, “Through the partnership with Embrace, OceanFirst Bank customers seeking residential mortgage loans are referred by OceanFirst to Embrace for access to a full range of home financing solutions.”
LOs and the importance of being local
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This week I received a note from Brian Vieaux, President of MISMO, about how, when mortgage headlines become loud, local advice matters more.
“For consumers paying attention to housing news lately, it probably feels like the industry and policymakers are throwing everything they have at the affordability problem: 50-year amortization mortgages… Penalty-free access to 401(k) funds for down payments… Prepayment penalties reintroduced as a way to lower interest rates… And most recently, White House proposals to restrict large investors from purchasing homes.
“Each of these headlines is aimed at the same challenge: affordability. Each sounds appealing at first glance. And each, if taken at face value, risks oversimplifying one of the most personal financial decisions a consumer will ever make.
“These ideas didn’t emerge in a vacuum. They are responses to real pressure: higher rates, elevated home prices, delayed first-time buyers, and concerns about housing supply. When affordability strains the system, both policymakers and the industry look for levers to pull: stretch the term, unlock liquidity, restructure risk, or limit competition for inventory.
“They are all somewhat logical, but not universal. That’s where the risk lies. A longer amortization may reduce a payment but dramatically change long-term equity and interest costs. Using retirement funds can accelerate homeownership while quietly undermining future financial security. Prepayment penalties may lower rates today but restrict flexibility tomorrow. And limiting institutional investors may help some markets while creating unintended consequences in others.
“None of these ideas are inherently bad. They’re simply incomplete without context. This moment reinforces a fundamental truth: mortgage lending is not a product business. It’s an advice business. Headlines speak to everyone. Local loan advisors speak to someone. Someone with a specific job market. A specific housing market. A specific life plan.
“As we discussed recently on Last Word, big ideas attract attention, but it’s the local advisor who provides clarity, helps borrowers understand tradeoffs, and connects national headlines to local reality. The best advisors aren’t chasing every new idea. They’re translating them. They slow conversations down when noise speeds them up. They reframe affordability as a strategy, not a structure. They help borrowers think five and ten years ahead, not just to closing. That’s the opportunity hiding in today’s chaos. When headlines get louder, trust becomes more valuable. When options multiply, guidance stands out. And when policy moves quickly, education becomes the competitive advantage.” Thank you, Brian.
Check out the full VieauxPoint blog article, including a deeper look at policy engagement and the role of the Mortgage Action Alliance (MAA). #VieauxPoint
Capital markets: policy uncertainty outweighs everything
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Welp, global markets were jolted by a surge in Japanese bond yields (Japan’s 40-year yield hit a record amid fears that a snap election and looser fiscal policy could further strain the country’s finances) and renewed political risk from President Trump (who escalated tensions with fresh tariff threats and rhetoric so extreme that Greenland’s leader warned of a potential U.S. invasion, adding to the sense of global instability) to open the trading week. President Trump is due to speak in Davos today, possibly on his selection for the next Fed Chair and details on the proposed 401(k) down payment plan, and we will keep you up to date on the reaction; we have seen that speculation is “far greater an enemy than the news itself.”
Treasury and MBS prices have fallen as the allure of U.S. assets has dimmed and trade war fears have risen, with the 10-year Treasury yield retracing higher yesterday to levels last seen in August of last year. The move marked a decisive break from the narrow yield range that had held for weeks, with 10-year yields climbing to 4.30 percent, and curve steepening accelerating as long rates sold off while the front end stayed relatively anchored. One of the market’s fears is that Europe’s large holding of Treasury bills on its balance sheet could be weaponized and used as leverage against the U.S. There is now chatter that 10-year yields could easily push higher toward 4.50 percent, especially as trade uncertainty revives bond-negative risks and reinforces expectations of a bear-steepening environment to start 2026. Expectations for a January Fed rate cut are now fully wiped out, with June emerging as the earliest realistic window.
Markets remain focused on policy uncertainty rather than near-term data, with little on the calendar to challenge the current narrative. Trade tensions, the looming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, geopolitics, and the still-unknown timing of Trump’s Fed chair nomination are the dominant risks, all of which could trigger sharp but potentially short-lived reactions. While inflation has remained contained, the bigger concern from renewed tariffs is their impact on business confidence and hiring, complicating the Fed’s path toward rate cuts, and reinforcing expectations for a January pause and growing uncertainty around March. With momentum now bearish and technical levels broken, Treasuries appear more sensitive to headlines and flows, even as many investors wait on the sidelines for either confirmation of a higher-yield regime or a clearer catalyst to justify stepping back in.
UMBS 30-year performance has been volatile, hitting the 3.5 percent and 7.0 percent coupons hardest, with the FNCL 3.5 percent roll swinging sharply as supply builds toward its highest level since 2022, even as most production remains concentrated in the 5.0 percent coupon. Lower coupons (3.5 percent to 4.5 percent) show the strongest TBA rolls, while higher coupons still favor low-payup stories and larger loan balances, with Ginnie Mae continuing to drive an outsized share of issuance, including steady ARM production led by the 5/1 3.5 percent coupon and overwhelmingly purchase-driven flow. Looking ahead, January prepayments are expected to slow meaningfully, gross issuance is running strong and near recent highs, and ARM pricing interest remains elevated amid modest TBA weakness, higher hedge volumes, and unchanged buydown MIP caps.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA for the week ending January 16, which increased 14.1 percent from one week earlier. The Refinance Index increased 20 percent from the previous week and was 183 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Later today brings construction spending for September and October (which were delayed due to the government shutdown), the pending home sales index for December, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by an auction of reopened 20-year bonds and a buyback for up to $4 billion in 2-year and 3-year coupons; earnings also continue from Wall Street. We begin Wednesday with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Tuesday’s close and big sell off, the 2-year yielding 3.58, and the 10-year yielding 4.28 after closing yesterday at 4.30 percent.
A man took his Rottweiler to the vet and said to him, “My dog is cross-eyed. Is there anything you can do for it?”
“Well,” said the vet, “let’s have a look at him.”
So, he picks the dog up by the ears and has a good look at its eyes.
“Well,” says the vet, “I’m going to have to put him down.”
“Just because he’s cross-eyed?” says the man.
“No, because he’s heavy,” says the vet.
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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)