Earlier this year, around the time tariffs were originally announced on "Liberation Day," bonds were defying logic and leaving even seasoned traders scratching their heads. Today, things make a little more sense, but only just. Yields have fallen, MBS price discovery is less of a problem, and a clearer trading range has developed, yet investors are still wrestling to interpret a Federal Reserve that seems both cautious and conflicted. At the heart of this story lies the term structure of...